What a gaffe that was yesterday, undoubtedly the most cringeworthy, appalling incident of the election campaign. The most enraging part of it all was when after coming out of Ms. Duffy's home after the apology he said with that horrendously eerie fake smile that he was 'mortified'. Then why were you smiling you strange man?!
Despite the monumental cock-up, the whole thing doesn't really seem to have done any damage to Labour in today's polls. So with that, all eyes are now on tonight's crucial final debate. This could just be the turning point of the campaign and with just a week to go the pressure on the three party leaders must be immense.
Brown despite all his failings, can appear strong on the economy. This of course in turn despite the evident fact that he was the one as Chancellor and then Prime Minister who presided over the economic recession and record inflation of our public deficit and national debt. He will spew out numbers and statistics that will out-flank and disorientate the two other naive younger opponents and in order for them to really destroy him they must be prepared with counter-attacks.
Brown's incumbancy is simultaneously his asset and his liability and he will attempt to ring circles around Cameron and Clegg to ensure its the former, not the latter, that the public see tonight.
For Cameron, this is his final chance to prove to the electorate that he can be the agent of change. Do I think this will happen? No. He has been too soft in this campaign; trying too hard to be statesmen-like when ideally he could have gone on the offensive and tore both Labour and the Liberal Democrats apart. He didn't because his party failed to give the clear message of what, when, and how they were going to cut in order to bring down the deficit. They fell into the Blairite trap of nauseating soundbites and slogans such as 'We're all in this together' which fell on deaf ears from an electorate literally numbed by political spin. We have after all, lived under New Labour for the past 13 years. Tonight he must be ruthless and concise in his argument; he must spell out in detail what the Tories will do and when, and above all he must show the electorate how they are different from the other two parties in the debate.
For Clegg too this will be a defining moment: will this debate cement the surge of support gained in the past two weeks or will his weakness on the economy ultimately be his undoing? Personally I do hope the latter occurs precisely because Clegg has become arrogant and presumptious over his potential power and demands should a hung parliament materialise on May 7th. He does not deserve the support of the British people. Nonetheless it is of course the wider electorate in particular the undecideds and marginal voters who will decide the fate of this debate and indeed the election next week. Clegg will have to show he is strong on the economy and be willing to defend his plans for tax reform from two opponents who I presume will be doing their utmost to bring him finally down.
All them will have to answer the questions surrounding the apparent blackholes in all their spending plans, if they don't I am certain the electorate will not tolerate it and rightly so. It is about time we had some honesty and clarity in this campaign, especially when it comes down to the state of our economy.
Will Brown win the debate? I doubt it but I do think it will be close. My prediction (and admittedly I was wrong in the last two: I thought Cameron won both...) is Brown and Cameron neck and neck in first place with Clegg behind but only by a few points. We shall have to wait and see.
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